贸易战对美国的杀伤力远大于中国 What Trump Isn’t Telling You About His Trade War With China

JADE GAO/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE

选民们之所以选择唐纳德·特朗普，一定程度上是因为他们想要一个敢于斗争的人。但在国际贸易领域，情况似乎越来越明显：他善于在镜头前挥舞拳头作秀，然而一旦进入拳击场，却完全不是对手。

Voters elected Donald Trump in part because they wanted a fighter. But increasingly it seems that in international trade, he’s good at shaking his fist for the cameras but utterly outclassed when he steps into the boxing ring.

事实上，在贸易战中，特朗普对己方的杀伤力甚至远超对手。

Indeed, Trump may be more dangerous to his own side of a trade war than to the other guy.

即使在特朗普做出让步，宣布将许多导致股市大幅震荡的“解放日”关税暂停90天后，美国的关税税率仍然是90多年来的最高水平。这相当于对消费者大幅增税，研究人员此前估计，这可能会给一个中等收入的美国家庭每年增加1700美元左右的生活成本。这是许多经济学家担心美国陷入衰退的一个原因。

Even after Trump’s climbdown — declaring a 90day pause on many of the “Liberation Day” levies that sent the stock market reeling — America’s tariff rates remain the highest in more than 90 years. They amount to an enormous tax hike on consumers, with researchers previously estimating that they might add something like $1,700 in costs per year to a middleincome American family. They’re a reason many economists fear that the United States is slipping into a recession.

最为激烈的贸易战是与中国之间的，我担心特朗普在这方面的判断失误尤其严重。他似乎在等待习近平主席认输求饶，但这种情况不太可能出现；相反，最终最急于结束这场贸易冲突的或许会是美国。

The most heated trade war is with China, and it’s there that I fear Trump has particularly miscalculated. He seems to be waiting for President Xi Jinping to cry uncle and demand relief, but that’s unlikely; instead, it may be the United States that will be most desperate to end the trade conflict.

中国确实面临严峻的内部经济挑战，包括普遍的就业不足和看不到尽头的通货紧缩循环。贸易战可能会使中国失去数百万个工作岗位，甚至可能危及政治稳定。

China does have serious internal economic challenges, including widespread underemployment and a deflationary loop with no end in sight. The trade war could cost China millions of jobs, and that raises some risks of political instability.

然而，中国也的确为这场贸易战做好了准备。我猜一些中国工厂已经在印制“越南制造”的标签，准备借道他国。而且，中国的武器不仅仅是关税。

Yet it’s also true that China has prepared for this trade war. I’m guessing some Chinese factories are already printing “Made in Vietnam” labels and preparing to ship goods through third countries. And China will fight with weapons that go far beyond tariffs.

中国从美国购买农产品和飞机，几乎可以肯定，它能从其他地方得到它需要的东西。但是，美国要从哪里获得对美国工业和军工基础至关重要的稀土资源呢？

China buys agricultural products and airplanes from America, and it can almost certainly get what it needs elsewhere. But where is the United States going to get rareearth minerals, essential for American industry and the military-industrial base?

在统称为稀土的17种金属中，我们目前72%的需求依赖中国。这些稀土广泛应用于玻璃、陶瓷、催化转化器等各种产品中。而在重稀土这一子类别下，中国是其中六种金属的全球唯一生产国。

These days we rely on China for 72 percent of the 17 metals known as rare earths, used in everything from glass to ceramics to catalytic converters. And in the subcategory of heavy rare earths, China is the sole world producer of six.

中国已经宣布，将限制这六种重稀土矿物以及稀土磁体的出口，而全球90%的稀土磁体来自中国。实际上，中国就是稀土的欧佩克，而稀土对于美国工业和军工生产至关重要。没有稀土，我们将难以生产无人机、汽车、飞机、风力涡轮机等产品。一架F-35战斗机含有约410公斤稀土，而一艘潜艇可能需要用到超过四吨的稀土。

China has already announced that it will limit the export of those six heavyrareearth minerals, as well as rareearth magnets, of which it controls 90 percent of the world supply. In effect, China is the OPEC of rare earths, which are essential for American industry and for military production. Without them, we’d struggle to produce drones, cars, planes, wind turbines and more. A single F35 fighter plane contains some 900 pounds of rare earths, and a submarine may use more than four tons of them.

2010年，中日两国在争议水域发生撞船事故，引发海事纠纷，中国政府停止了对日本的稀土出口。结果在日本国内引发稀土资源的疯狂争夺，以寻找足够的稀土维持工厂的运转，日本匆忙摆出和解姿态，恳求恢复稀土供应。

In 2010, when China and Japan were caught in a maritime dispute after a boat collision in contested waters, Beijing halted rareearth exports to Japan. The result was a mad scramble in Japan to find sufficient rare earths to keep factories open, and Japan hurriedly became conciliatory and pleaded for a resumption in the trade.

也许特朗普认为他能找到稀土的替代来源。我们的确应该这样做。但是，由于稀土的开采和加工过程会造成污染，在美国获得稀土矿的开采和运营许可需要近三十年的时间，因此找到替代并不容易。

Perhaps Trump thinks he’ll find alternative sources of rare earths. We should. But because rare earths are polluting to mine and process, it can take nearly three decades to get permission to open and operate a rareearth mine in America, so finding substitutes won’t be easy.

稀土虽然名为稀土，但在自然界中并不那么稀有，它们为了解西方军事工业基础的脆弱性，以及我们对中国的依赖，提供了一个窗口。1995年之前，稀土的主要生产国是美国。但后来中国开始以低廉的价格进行提炼，美国无法与之竞争（而且也没有认真去尝试竞争）。

Rare earths aren’t all that rare in nature, despite their name, and they offer a window into the vulnerability of the West’s militaryindustrial base and our dependence on China. Until 1995, they were produced mostly in the United States. But then China began refining them inexpensively, and the United States couldn’t compete (and didn’t seriously try to).

特朗普对中国的担忧在很多方面都是合理的：中国确实存在操纵贸易的行为。他说得没错，我们在制造业和供应链方面的薄弱是一个关键的安全缺陷，尤其是考虑到中国在无人机和电池等领域的优势。如果特朗普能够通过有针对性的关税、打击逃避关税的转运行为、对国内关键产业提供补贴、与国外盟友合作等方式来认真解决这些问题，我会感到很高兴。然而，目前尚不清楚他的目标究竟是什么，而且美国还不遗余力地去激怒盟友。

Trump’s concerns about China are in many ways legitimate: It has manipulated trade. He’s right that our weakness in manufacturing and supply lines is a critical security deficiency, especially given China’s strengths in areas like drones and batteries. I’d be delighted if Trump tackled these issues seriously with targeted tariffs, a crackdown on transshipments to evade tariffs, subsidies for critical industries at home and cooperation with allies abroad. Instead, it’s not quite clear what his aim is, and the United States has gone out of its way to antagonize allies.

一个令人担忧的迹象是：甚至在最新关税出台之前，东南亚的一项民调就发现，如果被迫与一方结盟，该地区大多数人都会选择中国而不是美国，这是首次出现这样的结果。

One alarming sign: Even before the latest tariffs, a poll in Southeast Asia found that for the first time, a majority of people there would choose China over the United States if forced to align with one side or the other.

在这场与美国的贸易战中，除了停止大部分稀土出口外，中国还有其他手段可用。中国可以停止在麻醉品问题上的有限合作，对那些希望向美国出口芬太尼或向墨西哥出口芬太尼前体化学品的贪婪的民营企业视而不见。它还可以反过来收紧向美国出口美国人所依赖的心血管或抗癌药物。

China has other tools available in this trade war with America beyond stopping most exports of rare earths. It could stop its limited cooperation on narcotics and turn a blind eye to its greedy private companies that would like to export fentanyl to America or fentanyl precursor chemicals to Mexico. Conversely, it could tighten shipments to the United States of cardiovascular or cancer medicines that Americans rely on.

中国也可以抛售美国国债个几天，引发债券市场恐慌并削弱美元。我不相信中国会长时间这么做，因为它自己也会遭受巨大损失，但政治局会很满意，因为这能让特朗普明白自己几斤几两。

China could also dump U.S. Treasuries for a few days, panicking the bond market and weakening the dollar. I doubt China would do this for long, because it would lose as well, but it might be satisfying for the Politburo to remind Trump who he’s messing with.

在这一切发生的同时，中国人民解放军可能会切断多条通往台湾的海底电缆。它可能会在台湾、菲律宾或钓鱼岛附近举行更多的军事演习。作为“伏特台风”网络间谍活动的一部分，它已经侵入了美国的基础设施，可以尝试切断美国小城市的电力供应，或者给银行系统带来一天的大混乱。

While all that’s going on, the People’s Liberation Army might cut multiple undersea internet cables leading to Taiwan. It could hold more military drills off Taiwan, the Philippines or the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands. It has already burrowed into American infrastructure as part of its Volt Typhoon cyberespionage campaign and could try turning the lights off in a small American city or creating havoc for a day in the banking system.

贸易战对中国和美国都可能造成毁灭性的后果。但经济预测人士认为，美国出现经济衰退的可能性远远大于中国。而对于习近平来说，现在可能给经济表现不佳找了个替罪羊，他称这是西方两个世纪的凌辱的又一事例，呼吁民众奋起反抗。总而言之，与特朗普相比，习近平可能更有能力渡过经济衰退。

A trade war may well be devastating for China as well as for America. But economic forecasters think a recession is far more likely in the United States than in China. And Xi may now have a scapegoat for his economic underperformance, calling on his citizens to resist what he will portray as one more chapter in a two-century history of Western bullying. All in all, Xi may be better positioned to ride out a downturn than Trump.

选择正确的冲突并表明立场本身没有错，而且中国的贸易政策是一个合理的目标。但特朗普发起的这场行动似乎注定会破坏我们与盟友的关系，并且放大美国的弱点。他这是拿着关税去跟别人的枪炮作战。

There’s nothing wrong with picking the right fight and taking a stand, and China’s trade policies are a legitimate target. But Trump’s campaign seems destined to fracture our alliances and magnify American weakness. He is taking a tariff to a gunfight.

【原文来自纽约时报.专栏作者纪思道】